RADAR · Methodology · Published 2026-06-27
RADAR measures whether a viral launch's view count reflects organic reach or paid distribution. It uses three public signals: whether reach and genuine engagement move together, how the amplification spread, and when the post went out. It does not judge the product or the founder. Paying for distribution is legal and common. RADAR measures how the reach was built, and every input is public.
RADAR measures whether a viral launch's view count reflects organic reach or paid distribution, using three public signals: whether reach and genuine engagement move together, how the amplification spread, and when the post went out. A launch reads as distribution-amplified when views climb far faster than the engagement that reach would normally carry, when the amplification arrives in a single coordinated window instead of spreading over days, and when the posting time fits a scheduled launch. Every input is public.
This is a narrow finding, not a character judgment. When RADAR labels a launch distribution-amplified it is reporting how the reach was built, not alleging that the product is fake or the founder dishonest. Paying for distribution is legal and common. The methodology, the confidence labels, and the source citation are how that line stays clear.
One narrow question, answered with evidence rather than opinion.
A launch video crosses several million views in a day. Did that reach grow the way organic reach grows, or was distribution bought and layered on top of a real post? RADAR answers that narrow question with evidence, not opinion.
It does not judge the product or the founder. Paying for distribution is legal and common, and often a sound launch tactic. RADAR measures how the reach was built. That distinction is the entire reason it exists, and it is the line the rest of this page holds.
The load-bearing signal: whether reach and genuine engagement move together.
On organic posts, reach and genuine engagement rise together, because the same feed that surfaces a post also makes it easy to like it. When views climb but the engagement does not keep pace, the extra views are arriving from somewhere that does not also produce engagement. That gap is the fingerprint of bought distribution.
| Pattern | Reading |
|---|---|
| Coupled | Views and genuine engagement rise together. Earned reach. |
| Decoupled | Views run ahead of the engagement organic reach produces. A distribution buy. |
| Sharply decoupled | Views vastly outrun any matching engagement. A like-farm signature. |
The gap widens as reach outruns engagement. RADAR reads its size against a labeled set of real launches, not a single published cutoff.
One note on why follower count is a weak signal. A large account can post reach that looks modest next to its follower base while still being heavily bought, because a big following hides the buy. Reach measured against followers is not trusted. Reach measured against genuine engagement is the signal that holds.
Organic amplification spreads. A bought amplification tends to arrive as a coordinated burst.
Organic amplification spreads. A genuinely viral post collects amplification in a long, irregular tail as different people find it over hours and days. A bought amplification tends to be a burst: a coordinated set of accounts amplifies in a synchronized window early on, manufacturing the velocity the paid distribution then rides.
RADAR reads the timing pattern of a launch's public amplification and how tightly it clusters. Amplification that lands in a narrow early window, rather than spreading as different people find the post over days, reads as coordinated rather than organic. RADAR weighs the shape of that pattern, not any single account.
A weak signal on its own that corroborates a coordinated launch.
Coordinated launches tend to be scheduled. A post whose timing fits a planned, scheduled slot rather than a spontaneous moment is a mild tell. On its own it means little, but alongside a large reach-to-engagement gap and a coordinated amplification pattern it corroborates a coordinated launch.
Confidence scales with the evidence available, so a small launch is never over-called.
RADAR covers launches of every size, from micro to major, and the confidence label scales with the evidence available.
Verified
A full forensic trace exists: the complete amplification pull plus the live metric snapshot. High confidence.
Reconstructed
The reading is derived from the reach-to-engagement signal alone, without a full amplification trace. Labeled as lower confidence.
Insufficient sample
A micro launch with too few data points to read the amplification pattern reliably. It cannot earn a high-confidence bought verdict, because there are not enough engagers to be sure. It is shown with its metrics and an evidence-only label, never an over-called verdict.
Every RADAR page shows the launch size and the confidence level, so a small launch is never treated like a large one.
When RADAR labels a launch distribution-amplified, here is what that does not mean.
When RADAR labels a launch distribution-amplified, it is not saying:
The finding is narrow: the headline view number reflects bought reach built through coordinated amplification, not organic word of mouth. That distinction is the entire reason RADAR exists. Every verdict states the product and founder are real where that is the case, and frames the result as a signature of how reach was built.
Every reading rests on public data. If you are its subject, you can see the specific signals behind it.
Every input a RADAR reading rests on is public platform data, not private information: the reach and engagement a post carried, the shape of its amplification, and when it went out. RADAR does not publish a step-by-step reproduction guide, but the basis of any reading is available to the person it concerns.
If you are the subject of a reading and want to see the specific signals behind it, or believe a fact is wrong, email crew@forkoff.xyz and we will share the evidence the reading was based on and consider any correction or response.
A reading is point-in-time. RADAR re-checks launches over time, because bot purges and late engagement shift the numbers, and each page carries a last-checked date for that reason.
The bands are calibrated against real launches, and the method is versioned.
RADAR's readings are calibrated against a labeled corpus of real launches (30 fully profiled, with a high-resolution time-series reference set), and a live monitor watches launches in real time as they happen. The methodology is versioned and refreshed as the platform's dynamics change. Every input traces to that corpus and public platform data, not to any private source.
RADAR sits alongside the rest of FORKOFF's first-party measurement work in FORKOFF research, and it grows out of running managed distribution and influencer marketing at the scale where the difference between earned and bought reach stops being a guess and becomes a measured signal.
For the plain-English version of the questions this method answers, read what a botted launch is, how to tell if a launch is botted or organic, and the organic vs amplified launch benchmark.
To see the method applied, browse the best product launch videos ranked by views or the full set of tracked launches on the Launch Radar hub.
The disclosure first, then the four things that keep a reading independent of who is paying.
FORKOFF runs managed distribution. We help launches reach more people, and that is a paid service. RADAR reads whether a launch's reach was earned or bought. So FORKOFF sits on both sides of the same question, and you should know that before you trust a reading.
That is a real conflict, and the answer to it is not a promise. It is the method itself. Four things keep a RADAR reading independent of who is paying FORKOFF.
The method is disclosed
Every reading rests on public X data, and the categories of signal behind it are disclosed here. A method built on public data and stated, open categories cannot be quietly bent toward a client.
No privileged inputs
RADAR reads the same public view counts, like counts, quote-tweets, and timestamps for everyone. There is no private data that a FORKOFF client gets graded on more softly.
The verdict ignores the relationship
A reading is a function of the evidence, not of whether the launch is a FORKOFF client, a competitor, or a stranger. The confidence label and the source citation travel with every verdict, so the basis is always visible.
We grade our own work by the same bar
FORKOFF's own launches are read by the same signals and the same bands as everyone else. We hold our distribution to the standard RADAR publishes rather than exempting it.
The short version: the way to check FORKOFF is not to take our word for it. Every reading rests on public data, the subject of any reading can see the evidence behind it, and our own launches are held to the same bar. That is the whole reason the method is disclosed.
A reading is point-in-time and open to correction. The path is the same for everyone.
A RADAR reading is an evidence-based opinion derived from public data, not a statement of fact about any person, and it is open to correction and reply. If you are the subject of a reading and believe a fact is inaccurate, wish to add a response, or want to request erasure, email crew@forkoff.xyz with the launch and the specific point at issue. We review requests in good faith, correct any factual error, and consider a response for publication alongside the reading. The path is the same for everyone, whether or not they are a FORKOFF client.
The full detail is set out in the privacy policy and the terms of service.
The most common questions about bought views, how reach and engagement compare, and what a verdict does and does not claim.
Authorship
Simba
Co-founder, FORKOFF
Reviewed by: Kshitij JK
Last reviewed:
Published:
Methodology
RADAR methodology: three public signals (whether reach and genuine engagement move together, the shape of the amplification, and the posting time), calibrated against a labeled corpus of 30 launches, with verified, reconstructed, and insufficient-sample confidence labels.
Sources cited
RADAR reads whether a launch's reach was earned or bought from public data, with the confidence label and the source citation on every reading. Talk to a strategist about a launch you want measured.