What does an organic launch look like in the numbers?

Its views-to-likes ratio holds near or below roughly 500, with likes, replies, and quote-tweets keeping pace with views. Across RADAR's 23 tracked launches only 3 sit in this organic band, which makes genuine viral reach rarer than headline numbers suggest.

What is a typical amplified launch ratio?

Most tracked launches land in the paid-amplified band, from the low hundreds into the low thousands of views per like, with a synchronized quote-tweet burst in the launch hour. Reach ran past the organic ceiling, so the extra views arrived without matching engagement.

How large is the RADAR dataset?

It covers 23 tracked launches and about 90.3 million combined views, from October 2025 to June 2026. 11 of the 23 carry a full forensic trace and read as verified, while the rest are reconstructed from the ratio and labeled lower confidence.

Does the benchmark name which launches were botted?

No. It reports aggregate bands and never labels a single launch as botted. The distribution is what makes a benchmark useful, and singling out a named founder is exactly what RADAR's defamation-safe method is built to avoid.

Why are most launches not organic?

Because coordinated distribution is now standard practice at launch, and it is legal. The benchmark shows most large launches buy or coordinate reach past the organic ceiling, which is why a raw view count needs the engagement behind it to mean anything.

The benchmark, in the data

What does an organic vs amplified launch look like?

An organic launch and an amplified one look different in the numbers. Across RADAR's corpus of 23 tracked launches, about 90.3 million combined views from October 2025 to June 2026, organic reach holds near or below 500 views per like, while amplified reach climbs into the thousands. RADAR, FORKOFF's launch-intelligence surface, reads the gap as a distribution-amplified signature, using aggregate bands and naming no single launch.

01
The organic band Near or below roughly 500 views per like. Across RADAR's 23 tracked launches only 3 sit inside this band, where likes and replies keep pace with views and no amplification signature appears.
02
The paid-amplified band From the low hundreds into the low thousands of views per like. Most tracked launches land here, where reach ran past the organic ceiling and a launch-hour quote-tweet burst shows the reach was coordinated.
03
The heavy-amplified band Several thousand views per like and up. The far end of the set, where views climbed into the millions while likes stayed in the hundreds, so almost no engagement arrived behind the reach.
04
Verified vs reconstructed 11 of the 23 launches carry a full forensic trace and read as verified. The rest are reconstructed from the ratio alone, labeled lower confidence, and never turned into a hard call.
05
Aggregate and anonymized The benchmark reports bands across the whole set. It never names a single launch as botted, because a fair benchmark describes the distribution, not any one founder.

What the spread actually shows

Read together, RADAR's corpus of 23 launches, about 90.3 million combined views from October 2025 to June 2026, shows organic reach is the exception, not the rule, among launches large enough to track. Only 3 of the 23 hold inside the roughly 500 views-per-like organic band. The rest sit above the ceiling, most in the paid-amplified range and a few far higher, where views ran into the millions while likes stayed in the hundreds. The point is not that amplification is wrong, it is legal and common, but that a headline view count on its own tells a buyer almost nothing about how many real people the launch reached.

Why the benchmark names no launch

A benchmark works because it is aggregate. Reporting the bands, how many launches fall in each views-to-likes range, tells a buyer what normal and abnormal look like without pinning a label on any named founder. That restraint is deliberate and load-bearing here, because the underlying data names real, public launches. Distribution-amplified is a description of how reach was assembled, not an accusation, and a launch with only a partial record stays a lower-confidence reconstruction. The per-launch readings live on the RADAR hub, each tied to its public source post, so anyone can audit a single reading without the benchmark ever singling one out.

Keep reading

RADAR live dataset|How RADAR reads a launch|What a botted launch is|How to tell if a launch is botted|FORKOFF launch marketing

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