Updated Jul 1, 2026
You tell a botted launch from an organic one by reading three public signals together, not any one alone. RADAR, FORKOFF's launch-intelligence surface, checks the views-to-likes ratio against a roughly 500 organic ceiling, the shape of the quote-tweet wave in the first hours, and whether the post fired exactly top-of-hour on a weekday. Convergence across all three, on a verified trace, reads as a distribution-amplified signature.
Per our own views-to-likes benchmark of 5,375 creators, an engagement ratio outside the observed band is the cheapest tell that a launch was amplified. FORKOFF Views-to-Likes Benchmark 2026
A high views-to-likes ratio has honest explanations. A genuinely divisive post pulls views from people who never tap like. A video autoplays and counts a view before anyone engages. That is why RADAR does not call a launch on the ratio alone. The ratio narrows the field, the quote-tweet wave shows whether reach arrived in one coordinated burst or spread naturally, and the posting time shows whether the drop was scheduled. Only when all three line up on a verified trace does RADAR read a distribution-amplified signature, and even then the reading describes how the reach was built, never a claim about the founder or the product, which are treated as real.
RADAR frames every read as a signature, the measurable shape of how reach was assembled, not an accusation. Paying for distribution is legal and common, so a distribution-amplified signature is a description, not a charge against anyone. A launch with only a partial record gets a reconstructed, lower-confidence label and never a hard call. The product and the founder behind each launch are treated as real. This discipline is what lets the same method that flags a coordinated launch also clear an organic one without smearing anyone, which matters most when the analysis names public people.
The three signals RADAR reads together
| Signal | What it measures | Organic reading | Distribution-amplified reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Views-to-likes ratio | Reach against engagement | Near or below roughly 500 views per like | Far past 500 without the likes to match |
| Amplification wave | Shape of the quote-tweet spread | Spread gradually over hours and days | Synchronized burst in the first few hours |
| Posting-time fingerprint | Whether the drop was scheduled | Irregular posting time | Exactly top-of-hour on a weekday |
No single number is a verdict. RADAR reads a distribution-amplified signature only when all three converge on a verified trace; a reading from the ratio alone is reconstructed, labeled lower confidence, and never turned into a hard call.
OpenAI's Sora beat ChatGPT to 1M downloads, then shut down 6 months later. The public download, revenue, and moderation data behind both halves.
Read
On an ordinary post a pod costs you some reach. On a launch it costs you the only measurement you had. LinkedIn's own trust VP explains where the penalty lands.
Read
LinkedIn's own policy forbids agreeing ahead of time to like each other's posts. Here is what earns distribution instead, and why the cadence data disagrees.
Read
